全球CO2倍增对我国自然地域分异及农业生产潜力的影响预测

ＣＯ_２倍增导致全球变暖,并对自然环境产生影响的研究已成为举世瞩目的重大课题。本文在ＩＰＣＣ预告的基础上,分析了气候变化对我国自然地域分异的影响,用６７１个站点资料分析了我国温度带及各自然地区的数量指标、各地区生产潜力及影响生产潜力的因子,将气候变暖增温、温度带北移的界线及降水区向西迁移后干湿地区界线的变化绘制成图,同时预测了农业生产潜力的未来变化。结果表明：全球变暖使我国温暖地区面积增加,半干旱及干旱区水分条件改善,有利于作物生产。     

基于2015～2018年实时监测数据对关中平原城市群PM2.5时空变化规律的研究

为了解关中平原城市群PM_2.5时空变化规律，利用2015～2018年国家空气质量检测平台发布的PM_2.5实时监测数据，并用地统计学和探索性空间数据分析等方法，对关中平原城市群PM_2.5污染的时空变化规律进行分析。结果表明，关中平原城市群PM_2.5污染总体呈向好趋势，PM_2.5年均超标城市由11个减少到8个，年均浓度超标率显著下降。PM_2.5污染主要出现在冬季，春秋季过渡，夏季PM_2.5浓度季度均值、月均值都最低，PM_2.5日均值曲线与月均值曲线大致趋势一致，呈单峰"脉冲型"变化；PM_2.5污染在空间上具有明显的分异性和集聚性特征，表现出"临汾-咸阳"为轴的高污染区面积逐渐缩小，而以平凉、天水为中心的低污染区面积逐渐扩大的空间变化规律。     

水电工程干扰下澜沧江典型段的水温时空特征

以澜沧江流域漫湾库尾至大朝山坝下的水电工程干扰典型段为研究区域,利用1978～2005年建坝前后的水温实测资料,采用相关分析、线性回归的方法分析表层水温、下泄水温的时空分布特征.结果表明,水电工程建设后库区蓄水对表层水温有着明显的增温效应,坝前表层水温仅5～8月低于气温,其余所有月份坝前表层水温均高于建坝前的天然表层水温,时间分异性减弱.库区出水温度一般冬季(干季)高于气温和天然表层水温,而夏季(雨季)则相反,与天然水温和气温的变化趋势有2个月的滞后性.从库尾到坝前,表层水温与天然气温逐渐接近,水温/气温比与距离大坝距离之间存在正相关关系,漫湾库区下泄水对大朝山库区的水温具有一定的累积效应.本研究结果表明水电工程对澜沧江典型河段的水温时空分布存在显著效应.     

利用RAPD标记分析卧龙自然保护区不同海拔沙棘种群的遗传变异

从1800m到3400m五个海拔连续取样,用RAPD分子标记研究了卧龙自然保护区中国沙棘种群的遗传结构和遗传变异.用11条寡核苷酸引物,扩增得到151个重复性好的位点,其中143个多态位点,多态率达94.7%.在5个沙棘种群中,总遗传多样性值(HT)为0.289,B种群内的遗传多样性值为0.315,这完全符合沙棘这种多年生、远交的木本植物高遗传变异的特性.5个种群内遗传多样性随海拔升高呈低—高—低变异趋势,在2200m海拔处的B种群遗传多样性达最大值0.315,3400m海拔处的E种群则表现最小,仅0.098.5个种群间的遗传分化值GST=0.406,也即是说有40.6%的遗传变异存在于种群间,59.4%存在种群内.1800m海拔处的A种群与其他种群的明显分离是造成种群间遗传分化大的原因.UPGMA聚类图和PCoA散点图分别进一步确证了5个种群间关系和所有个体间的关系.最后,经过Mantel检测,遗传距离与海拔表现了明显的相关性(r=0.646,P=0.011).     

Quality and Congestion in Environmental Goods: The Road to the Wangapeka

An increasing complaint heard among New Zealand residents is that their enjoyment of local environmental resources is being diminished by increased congestion from foreign visitors. This paper considers a model of vertical differentiation in which foreign high-value and domestic low-value consumers incur congestion costs in using a common resource. We demonstrate that reducing quality in the face of increased foreign demand is optimal absent discriminatory prices (but not otherwise). We also consider the provision of multiple environmental goods and demonstrate that providing differential qualities may be optimal even if domestic consumers do not use the high-quality resources at all.     

2000~2019年中国PM2.5时空演化特征

本研究利用PM_2.5实测数据、MERRA-2 AOD与PM_2.5再分析数据、气象因子和夜间灯光等数据,基于极限梯度提升、梯度提升、随机森林模型和Stacking模型融合技术提出了PM_2.5浓度组合估算模型.在此基础上,从年、季、月尺度综合分析了2000~2019年中国PM_2.5时空变化特征.结果表明：①组合模型实现了中国2000年以来PM_2.5逐月浓度的可靠估算.②2000~2019年中国PM_2.5年均浓度呈快速增加保持稳定显著下降的趋势,2007年和2014年分别为增加到稳定和稳定到下降的转折点.PM_2.5月均浓度呈先降后升的"U"型趋势,最小值在7月,最大值在12月.③自然地理条件和人类活动奠定了中国PM_2.5浓度年度空间格局变化的基础,气象条件的逐月变化决定了PM_2.5浓度月度空间格局变化的主基调.④2000~2014年中国PM_2.5浓度的标准差椭圆中心向东移动,2014~2018年椭圆中心向西移动.1~3月椭圆中心向西移动,4~9月椭圆中心先北移后南移,9~12月椭圆中心向东移动.     

Endocrine disrupters in the aquatic environment

Possible mechanisms to explain endocrine effects on reproduction and sex differentiation are presented for selected pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, industrial chemicals and plant sterols which are known to be present in the aquatic environment. Disruptions of the hormonal coordination can be induced by xenobiotics on various levels of the hierachically organised endocrine system of vertebrates. Phthalate plasticisers, for example, may disrupt the pituitary control of gonadal functions; prenatal/larval exposure to synthetic estrogen impairs sex differentiation and neuroendocrine sexual determination of the central nervous system; phenylurea herbicides block the androgen receptor; the biotransformation of weakly estrogenic plant sterol components of paper mill wastewater (e.g. βsitosterol) may lead to androgenic compounds. The effect of hypolipidemic drugs on lipid homeostasis (peroxysom proliferation) is transmitted via a receptor protein that seems to be closely related to the endocrine system both functionally as well as phylogenetically; possible interferences with the neuroendocrine control of sex differentiation are also discussed. In invertebrates, tributyltin is known to effect the biosynthesis of steroidal sexual hormones. PCBs are suspected to be competitive inhibitors of the steroid catabolism. In order to identify potential risks caused by chemicals to the reproductive capacities of aquatic animals and to the quality of drinking water, methods should be established to detect endocrine disrupters at the various levels of the endocrine system.     

Differences in sensory ecology contribute to resource partitioning in the bats Myotis bechsteinii and Myotis nattereri (Chiroptera: Vespertilionidae)

Coexisting animal species frequently differ in resource use in at least one niche dimension and thus avoid competition. While a range of morphological differences that lead to differentiation in animals' mechanical access to food have been identified, the role of sensory differences in within-guild niche differentiation has received less attention. We tested the hypothesis that differences in sensory access to prey contribute to resource partitioning between potentially competing species using two sympatric, similar-sized, congeneric bat species as a model system. Nursery colonies of Natterer's bat (Myotis nattereri) and Bechstein's bat (Myotis bechsteinii) roost in bat boxes in the same orchard and forage in forests and orchards nearby. In observations and behavioural experiments with freshly captured M. bechsteinii, we showed that individuals are able to hunt using prey-generated sound alone. In contrast, M. nattereri rarely uses prey-generated sound, but instead is able to find prey by echolocation very close to vegetation. In accordance with these behavioural data, we showed that M. bechsteinii has significantly larger ears than M. nattereri, providing it with superior detection and localization abilities for relatively low-frequency prey rustling sounds. We hypothesized that these differences in sensory ecology of the two syntopic, congeneric species would contribute to resource partitioning, so that M. bechsteinii would find more noisy prey taxa, possibly hidden in vegetation, by listening for prey sounds, while M. nattereri would have better access to still prey using echolocation or associative learning. Analysis of faecal samples collected on the same nights from bat boxes occupied by each species corroborated this prediction. The diets of the two species differed significantly, reflecting their different prey perception techniques and thereby supporting the hypothesis that differences in sensory ecology contribute to niche differentiation. Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available for this article at and accessible for authorised users. B.M. Siemers and S.M. Swift contributed equally to this work.     

雅鲁藏布江流域水化学时空变化及其控制因素

为研究雅鲁藏布江全流域水化学特征及其控制因素,2016年先后采集雅鲁藏布江干流及其支流丰、平、枯三个水期水样212个,综合运用数理统计、Piper三线图、Gibbs模型和离子比等方法,分析了全流域河水的水文地球化学特征,并探讨了流域的水化学演化规律.结果表明,河水中阳离子均以Ca²⁺、Na⁺和Mg²⁺为主;阴离子以HCO₃^-和SO₄^2-为主;TDS平均值为204.51mg/L,矿化度较低;水化学类型以HCO₃·SO₄（SO₄·HCO₃）-Ca·Mg（Mg·Ca）型水为主;雅鲁藏布江主干河流内的主要离子含量变化存在波动且季节性变化显著.空间上,河水中绝大多数离子遵循着先增大后减少的趋势;水化学样品均分布在Gibbs模型左中部,说明该流域水化学离子组成受岩石风化作用控制;主成分分析及相关分析表明雅鲁藏布江流域水化学组分受人为影响作用控制,方解石、白云岩的风化及硫酸溶解也起到非常重要的作用.流域三个水期的重金属元素的含量绝大多数能满足地表水I类水体的要求.     

1958—2015年长江中下游寒潮时空演变特征

基于长江中下游地区54个气象站点1958—2015年日最低气温数据,从时间和空间的角度,定量分析该地区寒潮发生发展的演变特征和空间变化。结果表明：过去58年,寒潮发生次数呈不显著减少趋势,平均减少幅度为1.2次/站;寒潮过程中,最低气温的平均降温幅度呈南高北低分布,最低气温的极端降温幅度呈自区域中心向四周逐渐降低分布。寒潮发生的首次最早为8月1日（九江站）,末次最晚为5月4日（寿县站和六安站）,出现时间的空间分布差异显著。冬季寒潮频发,春季和秋季次之。